It is now clear that Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential election in Turkey, but would most likely lose the full majority in parliament. With 80.5% of the ballots counted, Erdogan's party received 45.6% support. Second is the National Revolutionary Party with 20.6%
Elections will take effect on constitutional changes approved by a referendum on April 16, according to which Turkey moves from a parliamentary system to a presidential management system with executive powers. The changes also envisage an increase in the number of MPs in the parliament from 550 to 600 and the abolition of the post of prime minister.
Controversial results may not lead to major price changes at TRY, but surely the volatility will be deadly ... at least in the first minutes of trade. In the long run, controversial election results would have led to Erdogan's problems, and hence to instability, both for the TRY and the Turkish stock market.
As for the opening later, I expect TRY to retreat against the major currencies.
Source: Reuters
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