The bond market is starting to get cold feet about the Fed.
So for traders, appearances by Fed Chair Janet Yellen both Wednesday and Thursday could be critical in setting market expectations about the course of Fed rate hikes. Also looming large is Friday's jobs report, the last big piece of data ahead of the Fed's Dec. 16 meeting, so Wednesday's November ADP payroll report will also be important to markets.
The shockingly weak November ISM manufacturing survey Tuesday showed a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time in three years. The reading was the latest piece of softish data that raises doubts about the Fed's plan to raise rates in December, if the economy is strong enough.
"We're going to pay a lot of attention because she's going to have more insight than the rest of us. Let's see how confident she is," said David Ader, head of Treasury strategy at CRT Capital. "Maybe there's concern that the Fed is doing this (rate hike) because they're committed to it, and the economy is just not that strong. And I think that may not get people to be aggressive buyers, but it certainly is inhibiting people being aggressive sellers."
Yellen is scheduled to speak at the Economics Club of Washington on Wednesday at 12:25 p.m. ET and then testifies the next morning before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. On the data front, there is the ADP data at 8:15 a.m. ET, and 192,000 private sector payrolls are expected. That compares with expectations of 200,000 for Friday's November government jobs report.
There are also productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. and the Fed's beige book on the economy at 2 p.m.
25 Canada Square, Level 33, office 50, Canary Wharf London, E14 5LQ +44 20 3608 6256
World Financial Markets - 0700 17 600 Varchev Exchange - 0700 115 44
Varchev Finance Ltd is registered in the FCA (FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY) with a passport in the United Kingdom: FCA, United Kingdom - registration number: 494 045, which allows provision of financial services in the United Kingdom.
Varchev Finance Ltd strictly comply with the statutes of the European directive MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments). targeting increased efficiency, transparency and uniformity of financial instruments.
Varchev Finance Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Supervision Commission - Sofia, Bulgaria: License number RG-03-02-05 / 15.03.2006
The information on this site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Disclaimer:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.