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Silver: Who's Crazy Now?
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Loading...When I revealed this fractal they thought I was crazy.
Well, who's crazy now?
Being contrarian may not be popular, but it's usually profitable.
Inspiration can come from unexpected places. I was trading silver slv in late June and early July and at some point on July 1st, around the time silver ripped another +5%, I thought to myself, 'this feels like 2011 all over again'.
In miniature, of course. Fractals are repetitions of patterns / sentiment / behavior in different timeframes.
Initially I thought silver could go higher, but I watched as a topping pattern just like 2011 developed over the next month. It was quite strange to watch my expectations play out on the chart in real time. It was clear a correction was due.
On August 3rd I wrote the article, 'Silver Topping like 2011' and included this chart and a $17.5 target in the next three months:
Four months later the repetition is still continuing and although the similarities aren't perfect, it's worth updating the chart:
The only glaring difference in the two declines is the October rally before the election. Everything else matches and now the fractal has hit its target it can be considered complete.
I sure wish I'd kept my $20.7 short, but that's another story. In my defence it was a tough trade and it's worth remembering just how bullish everyone was. Some of the comments at the end of the linked article show how no-one saw such a move happening. I might as well have said Trump could be president.....
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