I think the main problem now will be how quickly the kingdom can return the facilities online after the weekend attacks.
This raises the issue of infrastructure but also of the assessment of damage to the oil facilities affected. In a sense, we will have to see how long and how long this will keep Saudi production away and how quickly the kingdom can return to "normal".
The attacks are estimated to have destroyed about half of the kingdom's oil production capabilities and it remains to be seen what the true extent of the damage is.
So far, officials have had a huge impact on interruptions in supply with Saudi Arabia, even saying that there will be no immediate shortage of supplies from the Kingdom and OPEC +, nor do they see the need to interfere with an emergency meeting.
This nurtures market calm and lowers fears of new risky headlines in the media throughout the day.
But we are yet to experience the "second wave" of shock as the issue of infrastructure plays a role. If it takes months to restore the Kingdom's production capabilities, we may see more drastic actions taken by OPEC +.
However, one of the major problems with switching supplies is that no country, by its very nature, wants to do so because it risks losing market share.
There are many theoretical talks we can get into, but in essence, the first thing that comes down to it is how long will these oil rigs be brought out and how quickly can Saudi Arabia bring them back online?
I think we will have a better idea of this in the coming days / weeks and then we will be able to determine how long Saudi Arabia can rely on its reserves to respond to the problem.
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